Impacts on agriculture
In Kenya agriculture is of great importance. Agriculture is one of Kenya’s economic pillars and about 50% of the country is devoted to growing major crops such as tea, coffee, pyrethrum, maize, wheat and a variety of fruits and vegetables. In high rainfall areas, dairy farming thrives, while arid and semi-arid areas are characterized by livestock and mixed cropping systems. However, the delicate balance that sustains these agricultural practices is increasingly threatened by the changing climate. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and extreme weather events pose serious challenges to food security and economic stability.
What is the importance of agriculture to Kenya?
Agriculture plays a crucial role in Kenya’s economy, contributing approximately 20% of the nation’s GDP and employing over 40% of the workforce, particularly in rural areas. The sector utilizes about 50% of the country’s land for various crops, including tea, coffee, maize, and vegetables. Livestock farming is also vital, accounting for at least 50% of agricultural GDP and about 10% of the total GDP, with over 70% of livestock raised in arid and semi-arid regions. For pastoralist communities, livestock farming is a primary source of income, generating 95% of their earnings and employing around 90% of the population in these areas.
Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts are expected to reduce food availability and threaten the livelihoods of pastoralist communities. In 2022, drought-related food emergencies affected 4.3 million Kenyans, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive strategies in agriculture to ensure food security and economic stability in the face of ongoing climate change.
How does climate change affect agriculture?
Agriculture in Kenya is finely tuned to its environment, making it vulnerable to change. The agricultural sector is largely dependent on rainfall and is therefore vulnerable to drought, heat stress and shifting rainfall patterns due to climate change. The impacts of these vulnerabilities are listed below/
Drought can lead to a decline in crop production.
According to a 2023 economic survey by Kenya’s National Bureau of Statistics, the prolonged drought that gripped the Horn of Africa in 2022 led to a 6.5% drop in maize production nationwide and a 3.3% drop in the volume of horticultural exports. The volume of marketed milk also fell 5.9%, largely due to a shortage of livestock feed.
Heat stress reduces maize and wheat production, threatens livestock and reduces farm worker productivity.
- High temperatures are expected to reduce maize and wheat production, as these crops are highly vulnerable to heat stress. Under a very high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), wheat yields in Africa are projected to decline by 15% by 2050, a much larger loss than the projected 1.9% decline worldwide (Pequeno et al., 2021).
- Heat stress threatens livestock. About 4% of livestock are currently raised in areas where dangerous heat stress is likely to become more common between 2071 and 2100 under a medium emissions scenario (RCP4.5). Under a very high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the proportion of livestock at risk increases to 19%. (Rahimi et al., 2021)
- High temperatures also cause heat stress to farm workers, further reducing agricultural productivity.
Heavy rainfall can cause flooding, soil degradation and reduced agricultural production. Heavy rainfall has led to increased flows in major rivers, such as the Tana, and increased the area of lakes in the Great Rift Valley, leading to flooded farmlands, degraded soils and reduced agricultural production.
Climate change may cause outbreaks of locusts devouring crops. Climate-induced locust outbreaks that devour agricultural crops have become a particular problem in East Africa.
Kenyan fish catch may decline due to sea level rise, coral bleaching and mangrove degradation. Along the coast of Kenya, sea level rise, coral bleaching and mangrove degradation could reduce the catch of Kenyan fisheries. Under a very high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), Kenya’s fish catch could decline by an estimated 63-76% by 2100 (Wilson et al., 2021).
What can we do to reduce the impacts on agriculture?
In order to reduce the impacts on agriculture, we can take measures to adapt to the changing climate. Explore Measures to adapt agriculture.
